3rd largest oil importer · 55–65% Hormuz transit · growing Russian imports offer partial buffer, but Gulf remains dominant
India imports over 85% of its total oil needs. Approximately 55–65% of those crude volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz — a lower percentage than Japan or South Korea, but in absolute terms, India is one of the largest Gulf importers. The rise of Russian oil imports (now ~35% of total) has reduced Hormuz exposure, but a blockade would still trigger a major supply shock.
Russia has become India's top supplier since 2023, providing a crucial alternative route (via the Cape of Good Hope or Eastern routes) that bypasses Hormuz. However, Iraqi and Saudi supplies — still very large — remain vulnerable.
India has 65 days of strategic and commercial petroleum reserves (IEA recommendation is 90 days). The government has built underground caverns at Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, and Padur, holding ~39 million barrels. Additional commercial stocks bring total to ~65 days. Under a Hormuz closure, India could stretch reserves to 50–55 days with rationing.
Current situation: The US-Iran war has disrupted Gulf shipping. For India, the immediate impact is a surge in crude oil and freight prices. Thanks to increased Russian imports via the Arctic and Cape routes, India is somewhat insulated compared to East Asian economies, but the loss of Iraqi and Saudi supplies (over 40% of imports) would still be catastrophic.
If only Gulf supplies are disrupted but Russian oil continues flowing, India could manage for 60–90 days with rationing and SPR releases. However, a full blockade of both Hormuz and alternative routes would exhaust India's 65-day reserves within 45 days. The government would impose fuel rationing and may prioritize industrial and defense needs.
India has ramped up imports from Russia to record levels (~2 million bpd), and is diversifying to Guyana, Brazil, and West Africa. New Delhi is also leveraging its diplomatic ties with both Iran and the US to mediate. However, the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve (ISPR) is being expanded to 90 days by 2027, but not in time for the current crisis.
India's energy demand is rising faster than any major economy. The government has promoted domestic exploration, renewable energy, and strategic reserves, but oil remains the backbone of transport and industry. The Russian import pivot has been a game-changer, but pipeline infrastructure is lacking. A Hormuz closure would force India to rely almost entirely on Russian and Atlantic Basin crude, requiring massive logistical shifts and causing price volatility.
India's dependency is lower than Japan and Korea due to Russian imports. However, in absolute volume, India's daily intake from Hormuz (~3.3 million bpd) is larger than South Korea's total consumption.
India is aggressively expanding renewable energy (targeting 500 GW by 2030), but fossil fuels will dominate for decades. The government is building additional strategic storage (new facilities at Chandikhol and Padur to add 30 days). Meanwhile, the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliant India) initiative includes increasing domestic exploration, but progress is slow.
Strategic pivot: India is negotiating with Saudi Arabia and UAE for alternative overland pipeline routes (e.g., via Pakistan or Iran), but geopolitical obstacles remain immense.